In 2020, what are the constraints of auto exports including mini bus?
1. The epidemic is disrupting the world economy, and the prospects for recovery remain uncertain.
The World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund in October 2020 predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2020 will be -4.4%. According to the monitoring of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: In November 2020, China’s comprehensive external economic PMI was 54.7. It fell back slightly by 1.8 points after rebounding for 7 consecutive months and remained above the line of prosperity (50.00). Among them, the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Australia, and Brazil, India, South Africa.
In November 2020, the global real economy is still in a rebounding channel. With the finalization of the US general election, stimulus plan, and vaccine research and development, the market sentiment is optimistic, and the influence of monetary easing is superimposed on the increase in the stock market and commodity prices.
However, after the U.S. stock market hits a new high. The risk of volatility has increased, and once the epidemic repeats or the progress of vaccine promotion and use falls short of expectations, it may hit global market sentiment. At present, the main risks are still concentrated in the disturbance of the epidemic to developed economies. Also, the damage to the long-term competitiveness of some emerging market countries. Fluctuations in the world economy will have an impact on the export of Chinese products including mini bus.
2. The epidemic caused a slowdown in demand, and the performance of major overseas markets was uneven.
Affected by the epidemic, from April to May 2020, the sales of light vehicles in major overseas markets, including mini bus, have bottomed out one after another. It is the largest decline in nearly 30 years. It is expected that the annual sales in major markets will shrink by more than 15%. In addition, the uncertain pressure of repeated epidemics still exists.
With the return of the epidemic, European and American markets have once again entered a downward trajectory. In the short term, the blockade measures will lead to a decline in sales and capacity shrinkage. However, after a short period of depression in the demand channel in the first half of the year, the orders on hand by companies have reached or exceeded the level of the same period of the previous year. With the normalization of prevention and control measures and the gradual maturity of superimposed vaccine research and development, the market is expected to return to normal in the second quarter of 2021. However, the slowdown in the market demand of export destination countries is detrimental to the export of Chinese automobiles.
3. Investment review and manufacturing return, anti-globalization is on the rise.
Since July 2020, the EU countries represented by Germany and France have continued to report that they will increase the review of foreign direct investment. The Trump administration has even shouted “manufacturing return”. The Sino-US trade friction and the spread of the epidemic have caused Western countries to propose to reshape relatively independent economic systems. And setting off a wave of anti-globalization. Globalization has always been regarded as a dynamic process.
The international division of labor caused by differences in original accumulation has basically taken shape. At the same time, production capacity tends to be highly concentrated, and the supporting system of the industrial chain shows regional characteristics. Therefore, companies want to “bring away” on their own. not easy. At the same time, globalization is also a process driven by commercial interests. Enterprises are constantly exploring the best models of global production and global sales in order to maximize their benefits. But in any case, the rise of anti-globalization will make my country’s auto products exports face severe challenges.
4. The purchasing power of currencies in emerging markets has declined and the RMB exchange rate has continued to rise.
The main export markets for self-owned brands are concentrated in emerging markets and developing countries. These regions have been hit hard by the epidemic and the economic decline is obvious. At the same time, it has also brought about a sharp depreciation of the destination country’s currency. It has seriously affected the purchasing power of local end customers and the funds of distributors. Turnover. Market instability caused by huge exchange rate fluctuations will further intensify, and the overseas profitability of companies will be tested.
Since reaching a low level at the end of May 2020, the RMB exchange rate has been rising all the way. And rising to around 6.5 in early December. This is mainly due to the fact that China took the lead in controlling the epidemic and ushered in an economic recovery. The epidemic in the United States continued to increase and dragged down the economic recovery. China and the United States The widening disparity in economic fundamentals supports the RMB’s short-term appreciation channel.
In addition, domestic exports including
5. Shipping freight rates have skyrocketed, and global trade imbalances have become prominent.
In 2020, after global trade experienced a decline in shipping demand in the first half of the year, driven by the growth of export volume, shipping prices continued to rise in the second half of the year. And there was a large area shortage of containers, dumping containers, and surcharges on some routes. Among them, the price of ro-ro ships rose by 20% to 30%, the price of general cargo ships rose by 10% to 20%. And the price of container ships even increased by 3 to 5 times. China-Europe express trains are also experiencing tight schedules, with high freight and container charges for foreign sections, and serious congestion at border ports. It affects orders including mini bus shipments and delivery on time.
The global trade structure is not in balance, and the epidemic is disrupting the situation.
It has made the crisis of empty containers intensified. The interruption and delay of shipping caused by the epidemic severely disrupted the normal rhythm of the circulation of empty containers in international trade. China took the lead in resuming work and reaching production, and foreign trade exports rebounded sharply. Most of the containers were from Chinese ports to Europe and the United States but rarely returned. At the same time, the gathering and transportation efficiency of foreign ports has dropped significantly. It is also an important reason for the congestion of the entire logistics chain. At present, marine containers are in relatively short supply to a large extent. Rather than an absolute shortage, and it will take time for the global economy to recover.
In 2020, the global economy will restart and recover from the abyss of the epidemic crisis. It will be difficult and long-term obstacles. By the end of the year, the uncertainty of the adjustment process of Sino-US relations. And the decline and return of European manufacturing. At the same time, the spread of populism and anti-globalization, and the blind optimism of financial markets may all have an impact on the global economy. Returning to the return itself, the fundamentals of China’s auto export, including mini bus, are still in its infancy. The Chinese auto industry, including the mini bus industry, is still on the road for inward understanding and outward travel.