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How many years before minibus self drive

 How about your idea about minibus self drive?

minibus self drive

At the just-concluded Shanghai World Artificial Intelligence Conference, autonomous driving technology became a “hot spot”. And nearly 20 enterprises demonstrated their own autonomous driving, included minibus self drive, attracting the attention of many visitors. With policy support and continuous innovation and investment from many enterprises. China’s autonomous driving industry has shown a vigorous development trend. However, behind the gratifying development achievements displayed at the conference. There are still many problems that plague the popularization and deep development of autonomous driving.

Connecting the network with the traffic and advancing the whole number

As one of the top ten theme forums of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. The Unmanned Driving Summit Forum takes the theme of “connecting the network with the traffic and advancing the whole number”. At the forum, Xiaoma Zhixing, a startup company focusing on autonomous driving solutions. Whom brought the L4 self-driving vehicle and the self-driving mobile travel project PonyPilot to the show; The network car giant Didi demonstrated the self-driving team; and said that the company will accelerate the automatic driving test in Shanghai and will invite ordinary users to participate in the experience; The self-driving bus developed by Shenlan Technology Company which has black and white body color and panda-like front; to attracting many visitors to stop.

The largest market for vehicles and travel services

Due to the vigorous development of local and multinational companies. China has become the world’s largest market for vehicles and travel services. According to the latest research report of McKinsey, a global management consulting firm. China is likely to become the world’s largest autonomous driving market in the future, such as minibus self drive.  By 2030, the new car sales and travel services revenue has influenced by autonomous driving technology will exceed $500 billion. Speaking at the forum, Li Deyi, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that under ideal conditions.

The number of self-driving vehicles included minibus self drive will reach 440 million by 2035. Dr. Dai Yifan, Executive Director of Intelligent Networked Automobile Center of Suzhou Automotive Research Institute of Tsinghua University. Said that unmanned driving in specific scenarios is generally an inter-enterprise business, and has achieved commercial landing. Enterprises can use this as a starting point to gradually expand the technology to customers. Which will help to realize the latter’s commercial landing. The vigorous development of autonomous driving is inseparable from the timely and powerful support of national policies.

The development of autonomous driving

On August 26th, the Ministry of Transport revealed in its reply letter. The autonomous driving guidance development has drafted and under audition. On April 12, last year, the Management Specification for Intelligent Networked Vehicles Road Test was jointly formulated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Transport was officially released. The specification is applicable to the road test of intelligent Networked Vehicles conducted in China, and the test scope includes conditional automatic driving (L3 level), highly automatic driving (L4 level), and fully automatic driving (L5 level). Now Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, and so on.

So, how long will it take to get on the road without driving, included minibus self drive?  Many market participants, including traditional automobile manufacturers, new forces in building cars, Internet companies and network car companies, have unanimously expressed the same timetable: to realize the commercial application of technology in three years.

It will take more time to realize truly self driving

However, compared with the optimistic forecast of the industry, analysts are more cautious. Zhang Yu, general manager of “Automotive Vision”, an industry consulting company in Shanghai, said that “it will take at least 5 to 10 years for China to achieve mass production and on the road of truly self-driving vehicles, and the initial application field may be commercial vehicles instead of passenger cars.” According to McKinsey’s report, the high cost of the automatic driving systems included minibus self drive is the biggest bottleneck affecting its development. McKinsey’s research shows that only 27% of respondents believe that the cost problem can be solved by 2025; Another 37% believe that it can solve between 2025 and 2030; 20% believe that it will be resolved between 2030 and 2034; 17% think it can solve after 2035. At the same time, reliability and safety are other major bottlenecks in popularizing autonomous driving technology.

The issue of software and hardware technology

Zhu Jiangming, founder and chairman of Zero Run Auto, one of the emerging car-making forces in China, said that there are a series of software and hardware technologies such as sensors, high-precision maps, AI autopilot chips, AI algorithms, and deep learning at the technical level. How to achieve perfect integration; From the application level, how to balance excessive technical barriers with costs and achieve mass production; At the security level, how to ensure the road safety after automatic driving, included minibus self drive and the information security of intelligent network connection of automobiles are also very important. Experts believe that at present, a large number of domestic enterprises are developing the core elements of autonomous driving technology architecture. Such as lidar, camera, processor, software, and map service. At present, automobile manufacturers and OEMs have advantages in supply chain and management; science and technology enterprises have technological research and development advantages;

While travel service providers have advantages in data accumulation, in Zhu Jiangming’s view, all kinds of enterprises have opportunities, and the core lies in whether they have deep independent research and development capabilities and whether they can quickly realize mass production applications. Tang Ruisi, a global managing partner of McKinsey Beijing Branch, said, “Automobile manufacturers, high-tech companies and travel service providers in the Chinese market should now take actions in the following aspects: decide the areas of participation; Roadmap for developing contact technology architecture; Determine the appropriate alliance and ecosystem strategy; Develop strategic agility and update its methods when new data appears in the market. “



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